The updated energy transition scenarios developed by the Instrat Foundation are now available on the platform. The update includes the latest version of Instrat’s report on the costs of the transition, including the topic of Poland’s power grids.
Go to the updated section using the button below:
New modelling report
In December 2025, the report “Grids Fit-for-Purpose” by Patryk Kubiczek, Kajetan Nowak and Michał Smoleń, published by the Instrat Foundation, was released. The report “Grids Fit-for-Purpose. Network costs and the economic viability of RES in Poland out to 2040.” (only in Polish now – an English version will be available by the beginning of next month) shows that investments in power grids do not constitute an economic barrier to the development of renewable energy sources.
Importantly, the report’s authors point out that modernisation and expansion of the grid are necessary regardless of the pace of transition, and that responsible, long-term infrastructure planning will avoid tens of billions of zlotys in unnecessary spending. Furthermore, the report shows that rapid RES deployment leads to cheaper electricity in Poland than in scenarios with a high share of coal and gas — even after accounting for the costs of grid investments. For more details and recommendations, please visit the report page and download the complete publication!
Changes in the charts on the platform
Most of the visualisations are available in the same form as before. Their description can be found in the post about the publication of transition scenarios on our platform:
As part of the latest update:
- We have added new scenarios from the December (2025) report to the main 2024 scenario (”Main ’24”) still present in the charts:
- “Main“ – a scenario of ambitious but still realistic RES development, roughly corresponding to the WAM scenario from the July 2025 update of the NECP project.
- “Less RES“ – a variant with a lower achievable rate of wind and solar power development, roughly corresponding to the WEM scenario from the July 2025 update of the NECP project.
- “Less Heat Pumps“ – a scenario in which the rate of heat pump installation in buildings is half that of the main scenario.
- “Less Hydrogen“ – a variant assuming half the rate of development of hydrogen-producing electrolysers than in the main scenario.
- We have also added a new chart showing power sector emissions in Poland – please see the “Emissions” category.
